The FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinals feature Spain, Argentina, France, and England as the top contenders based on Elo ratings, with Morocco, Belgium, Switzerland, and Norway also in the mix. The first quarterfinal match, France vs. Morocco, begins at 12:30 AM IST on Friday.
Elo Ratings: Pre-Tournament Favorites Still in Contention
The Elo system, which rates teams based on relative performance, ranks Spain, Argentina, France, and England as the top four teams entering the tournament. All four have improved their ratings, with France gaining 80 points—the highest increase among them. Morocco made the biggest leap in Elo, rising 12 places to 12th in the world after a 94-point jump.
Other quarterfinalists—Belgium, Switzerland, and Norway—also saw their Elo ratings rise.
Goal Difference and Performance Metrics
France leads in goal difference, scoring 14 goals and conceding just two (+12) for an average of 2.4 per game. Spain and Argentina follow with a 1.8 average, though their approaches differ:
- Spain: 0 goals conceded (clean sheets in all matches)
- Argentina: 14 goals scored, 5 conceded (including two against Egypt)
- Belgium: 1.6 average goal difference
- England and Morocco: 1.2 average goal difference
- Norway: 0.6 average goal difference (9 goals conceded)
Expected Goals (xG) Analysis
Expected goals (xG) measure the quality of scoring chances. Spain leads with a +1.69 xG differential, thanks to a defense that limits opponents to 0.31 xG per game—the lowest in the tournament. Argentina (+1.59) and France (+1.33) follow, with Argentina’s total xG at 10.94, boosted by Lionel Messi’s eight goals.
France has been the most clinical in finishing, while Spain’s defense stands out despite lower conversion efficiency. Argentina’s defense, though strong, has conceded notable goals, such as in their 3-2 win over Egypt (xG: 2.8-0.98).
Switzerland, England, Morocco, and Belgium are closely grouped in xG differential, with Morocco having the best defense among them. Norway remains the weakest defensively but benefits from Erling Haaland’s attacking contributions.
